Establishment and application of prediction model of natural gas reserve and production in Sichuan Basin

Abstract Research on predicting the growth trend of natural gas reserves and production will help provide a scientific basis for exploration development. The metabolically improved modified weight coefficient GM(1,n) method is applied to multi-cycle Hubbert model predict new proven in Sichuan Basin. ultimate recoverable (URR) introduced as boundary condition production-time series growth. research results show that: (1) annual newly added Basin maintain trend, which reach peak 2034, at time rate 36%. (2) Based predicted reserves, final are estimated be $$5.25-5.75\times {10}^{12}{m}^{3}$$ 5.25 - 5.75 × 10 12 m 3 . 2035 $$750-810\times {10}^{8}{\mathrm{m}}^{3}/\mathrm{a}$$ 750 810 8 / a , grow rapidly. development basin prospective long time.